So About That Asteroid That Could Hit Earth…
The 1908 Tunguska event underscores the potential devastation of asteroid impacts, and asteroid 2024 YR4 remains under close study for its possible threat in December 2032, with recent assessments providing mixed probability estimates.
Published on March 29, 2025
In 1908, the Tunguska event reminded us of the devastating power of midair explosions caused by space rocks, flattening millions of trees over vast regions. Today, asteroid 2024 YR4—discovered eight years before its potential December 2032 approach—has drawn attention with an initial impact probability estimated at just over 2%.
Since then, ongoing observations and calculations have produced a range of assessments. Recent updates in February 2025 from agencies such as NASA and the European Southern Observatory have yielded conflicting probabilities—from as low as 0.004% to figures still around 2% or above on the Torino Scale—underscoring the need for continued vigilance. Enhanced detection efforts using facilities like the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the Near-Earth Object Surveyor aim to further refine these estimates while global planetary defense initiatives continue amidst funding uncertainties.