Goldman Sachs Reports 70% Market-Estimated Probability for Ukrainian Peace Deal

Goldman Sachs has reported that market pricing suggests a 70% probability of a peace deal in Ukraine, marking a significant rise from below 50% before the November 2024 U.S. presidential election. The probability even peaked at 76% in February 2025, reflecting growing optimism amid ongoing geopolitical developments. President Donald Trump has promoted his vision to end the Ukrainian conflict—described as a proxy war between the U.S. and Russia—which coincides with this upswing in market sentiment.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed conditional support for a U.S.-proposed ceasefire, insisting that several key issues need to be resolved beforehand. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, however, has dismissed Putin's conditions as unrealistic. Currently, Russia occupies just under 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and significant parts of four other regions. Additional analyses by financial experts hint at potential broader economic benefits should a peace deal materialize, from improved market conditions to modest boosts in European growth, even as questions remain about Russian oil production constraints.