Tariff Countdown: Trump's Move Sets Stage for Rising Economic Risks
President Trump is poised to announce major tariff hikes on April 2, with forecasts pointing to increased recession risk, inflation, and aggressive fiscal measures as the economy braces for impact.
Published on April 6, 2025
As Liberation Day approaches on April 2, President Trump is set to announce significant tariff increases. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 15-percentage-point rise in US tariffs this year, marking a tougher stance on reciprocal tariffs. Economists at GS now see the risk of recession climbing to 35% amid slowing growth and declining business confidence.
In response, the bank predicts that the Federal Reserve could implement as many as three rate cuts—similar to measures taken in 2019—to counteract the ensuing economic slowdown. Additionally, inflation is expected to edge up by half a percentage point, while Barclays warns that average tariff rates might hit levels not seen since before World War II, raising broader concerns for both domestic and global markets.