Asteroid 2024 YR4: Assessing the Threat of a High-Risk Near-Earth Object

Asteroid 2024 YR4, noted as one of the highest-threat near-Earth objects, continues to attract scientific attention. Although initially raising concerns due to its ranking on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, further observations have confirmed that the risk of an Earth impact is extremely low. Research by multiple teams, including emergency observations from the James Webb Space Telescope as recently as April 2025, has helped refine estimates of its size—now determined to be roughly 174 to 220 feet—and provided clearer insights into its orbital path.

Updated calculations, including those shared by NASA on February 24, 2025, have reduced the Earth impact probability to a near-negligible 0.004%. However, a very small chance of a lunar collision, estimated between 1.7% and 3.8%, remains, and this possibility continues to be monitored closely. The comprehensive study of the asteroid’s orbit and impact scenarios underlines ongoing efforts to ensure planetary safety.